As the chemical industry moves deeper into capacity optimization, the domestic aniline market in 2026 is expected to experience slower capacity expansion and a trend toward supply-demand balance. According to data, only one new or expanded domestic aniline facility is planned for 2026, with a total capacity increase of 300,000 tons per year (tpy), a significant slowdown compared to previous years. On the demand side, downstream momentum remains relatively strong, with plans for two new facilities in the MDI and rubber additives sectors, totaling 786,000 tons per year (tpy). Based on per-unit consumption calculations, this is expected to add 580,000 tons of aniline consumption per year (tpy), theoretically resulting in a demand gap of 280,000 tons per year (tpy), providing some support for the market.

From an annual supply-demand perspective, the aniline market is expected to remain in tight balance with notable monthly fluctuations. On the supply side, affected by intentions to temporarily reduce operations at some facilities, domestic aniline production in China is forecasted at approximately 4.05 million tons in 2026, combined with an estimated 10,000 tons of imports, bringing total supply to 4.06 million tons. On the demand side, primarily driven by MDI and rubber additives, total demand is expected to be around 4.01 million tons, with an annual supply-demand difference of about 50,000 tons, showing an "overall balance with temporary surplus in individual months" pattern. Stage by stage, as downstream facilities complete maintenance and resume operations in January-February, demand is expected to rebound, tightening the aniline supply situation; the start-up of Sinopec Nanjing Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.’s aniline-additives units in June and Wanhua Chemical’s Fujian MDI facility in July will further help reduce inventories, with the market expected to show an inventory draw trend in the first to third quarters. Additionally, strong performance in the 2025 aniline export market also provides optimistic expectations for export demand in 2026, serving as an important factor to ease domestic supply pressure.

Although the supply-demand fundamentals are relatively stable, the aniline industry still faces multiple uncertainty challenges. Currently, competition in the aniline and downstream markets is intense, and the start-up of new facilities may be delayed by construction progress, profitability, and other factors, disrupting the supply-demand rhythm. If the supply side operates at around 80% capacity, the market may experience a slight surplus. Moreover, benzene, the core raw material for aniline, is highly influenced by crude oil trends, and fluctuations in costs will further exacerbate profit uncertainty in the industry. It should be noted that the above analysis is based on facility plans as of the end of 2025, and actual operations need close monitoring of adjustments in aniline and downstream production loads, changes in overseas demand, and policy guidance. Industry insiders indicate that the key for the 2026 aniline market lies in the effective release of downstream demand and the execution pace of start-up plans, with the industry in a transitional stage of pressure adjustment and opportunity incubation.